Part 4 – Multiverse and preregistration
Part 4 reads the chart that the class built, treats the idea of a multiverse at length, and closes on the analysis you preregister in your report before running it.
| Work through | What you do | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Slides, the multiverse tutorial, with The multiverse and its critics as the companion | Your own small multiverse; where the idea comes from; the garden of forking paths; filters for inclusion; enumeration and curation; purposes of a multiverse; decomposing the variance by fork; reading a specification curve. | 20 minutes |
| Multiverse and slides | The exploratory dots from the class against the full curve and the five analysts; your bet on which choice moves estimates most, then the decomposition; where the analysts are placed on the claim-aligned grid; the sign flips by estimator and sample. | 20 minutes |
try_spec() on the Browser lab page |
Rerun the specification you submitted, then read off your own percentile among the 840 specifications and send it when the facilitator says go. | 5 minutes |
| Reading a specification curve and slides | What the curve leaves out; description and inference, the two jobs that a curve can do; the dependence among the 840 estimates, which means that they are not 840 tests; the permutation design and reading a curve-level test; what stands without the test. Then the discussion. | 15 minutes |
| Slides | The three critical positions, the argument that a fully specified question has one correct analysis, and what preregistration settles and what it leaves open. | 10 minutes |
| The report skeleton in the workspace, or Browser lab Task 5 | Complete the preregistration block before you run anything, translate it into model syntax yourself, run it, and submit with report_result(). Your declared result is drawn on the chart as a filled circle. |
15 minutes |
| Slides | Two points from the literature, the single analytical path, and what you take with you. | 5 minutes |
By the end of the part you have your own percentile in the 840-specification grid, one specification fixed in the preregistration block of your report before it was run, and a report that contains the result of that specification, together with an answer to what the curve you joined does and does not establish.